Free archive · Join Free · MI 2.1 Free issue 2026-10-16
MOUNT INFLECTION

FREE

MI 2.1 · Weekly Free rotation
Issue Fri Oct 16, 2026 ET · Equity data as of Thu Oct 15 close
Completed equity session: 2026-10-15
MI 2.1 · Hypothetical model signals · Educational research
How to read this issue. Signals use the entry/exit-only rule effective October 7, 2026. Portfolio day change, cash, weights and strategy performance below refer to the research allocation model; they are not returns from an account implementing the new rule. Reference prices are not fills. New subscribers follow future additions and do not backfill existing holdings.
Data advisory: BLFS, CCO, CSAN, DBRG, GBTG, LESL, QRVO, TBPH, WBD have unavailable completed bars. Their prior state is retained and new signals are suppressed; no current price is invented.

Action Summary

Long exits: HOG
New long buys: SNOW

Only the pending actions above are new instructions in this issue. Open holdings and completed history below are context. An exit applies only if that position is held; it does not mean open the opposite position.

Free signals: Weekly selection entry means a new addition to the weekly long list; Weekly selection exit means a removal. Related MI signals show their human names when a matching dated record exists. A weekly selection change does not require a new daily MI trigger.

THIS WEEK'S MODEL DECISION · ACTIONS SCHEDULED
Weekly review completed on 2026-10-15. 2 model action(s) are scheduled for the 2026-10-16 open and are listed below.
7-day model change
+1.39%
1-day model change
-1.00%
Research cash
21.28%
Holdings
15
Hypothetical allocation research model; not brokerage returns. 7-day window: 2026-10-08 → 2026-10-15 closes. 1-day: 2026-10-14 → 2026-10-15 closes (latest equity session).

Risk state Normal · 5.00% starting allocation per newly added name.

Allocation and new-entry size

Verified equity decision data: 2026-10-15. Staged long model 75% · core MI model 25%.

Strength expansion confirmed: at least 6 of 7 strength checks for 5 consecutive sessions. The staged long model currently has the larger share of the blend.

Free risk state: Normal · starting size 5.00% per new name. The S&P 500 reference is at or above its 200-session average.

The blend helps rank Free’s weekly long candidates. Free reviews selections at Thursday close; a blend change alone does not add, remove or resize a holding.

Last change · Long-model blend · decision 2026-10-07 · effective 2026-10-08: Staged long model 30% · core MI model 70% → Staged long model 75% · core MI model 25%.

Allocation context sizes new entries only. Keep existing quantities until an explicit exit; these changes are not rebalance instructions.

Long positions · next-open actions

Long exits · 1

Sell to close an existing long position

Ticker / WhyExpected openReference priceModel weight
HOG
Signal: Weekly selection exit
Removed from Free’s weekly long list; close the held position
2026-10-16Signal 2026-10-15$27.78 ref.Model reference, not a fill5.26%Reference exposure; close held quantity
New long buys · 1

Buy to open a new long position

Ticker / WhyExpected openReference priceModel weight
SNOW
Signal: Weekly selection entry
Added to Free’s weekly long list; open a long position
2026-10-16Signal 2026-10-15$335.07 ref.Model reference, not a fill5.00%Entry sizing reference

Sizes use model equity, not your cash balance or total brokerage account. An exit means close the held quantity. Small signals remain visible in their own direction group. No add/trim instruction is created by a changing weight.

Execution Rails

Thursday-close decisions for the next observed open. Enter on a new signal, hold the quantity, and close only on an exit signal. Changes in rank, prices, risk state or reference weights do not add to or trim an existing position. New entries use the signal sizing reference; brokerage quantities and fills are reported separately. Size is a share of model equity. This report does not place brokerage orders.

Existing long holdings · not new buys

15 model position(s). Entry dates describe model history, not your brokerage purchases. New subscribers follow future entries and do not backfill this list.

TickerModel entry datePrice P/LReference weight
XOM2026-10-094.06%5.13%
SU2026-10-096.97%5.27%
COP2026-10-095.89%5.22%
APA2026-10-093.87%5.12%
AES2026-10-090.27%4.94%
PBF2026-10-026.95%5.15%
CVX2026-10-027.09%5.15%
LXP2026-09-250.15%4.75%
MPC2026-09-1813.48%5.52%
VLO2026-09-0420.50%5.80%
PSX2026-09-0414.86%5.52%
ILMN2026-09-0423.62%5.95%
DINO2026-08-1434.26%6.49%
HOG2026-07-3112.65%5.26%
INTC2026-06-22-31.45%3.46%

Continuing MI 2.1 Free hypothetical model positions at the completed close. Entry dates come from the model history, not from Alpaca account initialization. Holding days are calendar days; entry day is zero. New subscribers follow later additions and do not backfill earlier entries.

Top 10 Ranks

Rank / TickerStatusP/L %Hold (days)
1 MPCOPEN13.48%27
2 DINOOPEN34.26%62
3 PSXOPEN14.86%41
4 CVXOPEN7.09%13
5 VLOOPEN20.50%41
6 LXPOPEN0.15%20
7 XOMOPEN4.06%6
8 APAOPEN3.87%6
9 PBFOPEN6.95%13
10 AESOPEN0.27%6

Top Ranks shows the weekly long-only candidates used by Free. Only the first 10 names are published in Free. A rank is context, not an order.

— means no trade observation. CLOSED P/L and hold refer to the last recorded exit; OPEN refers to the current position.

Completed long trades · history only

Hypothetical model history: 2026-09-10 through 2026-10-15. These actions are already completed in the model. Do not repeat them.

Long exits · 15

Sell to close an existing long position

Ticker / WhyModel trade dateReference priceModel weight
MAR
Signal: Weekly selection exit
Removed from Free’s weekly long list; close the held position
2026-10-09Signal 2026-10-08$361.81 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L 8.16%; hold 21 days5.34%Reference exposure; close held quantity
GGB
Signal: Weekly selection exit
Removed from Free’s weekly long list; close the held position
Related MI signal: Momentum fadeMI signal 2026-10-08
2026-10-09Signal 2026-10-08$5.06 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L 2.07%; hold 70 days4.84%Reference exposure; close held quantity
FDX
Signal: Weekly selection exit
Removed from Free’s weekly long list; close the held position
2026-10-09Signal 2026-10-08$292.00 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L -13.53%; hold 56 days4.24%Reference exposure; close held quantity
ATI
Signal: Weekly selection exit
Removed from Free’s weekly long list; close the held position
2026-10-09Signal 2026-10-08$189.62 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L 1.58%; hold 14 days4.89%Reference exposure; close held quantity
AAPL
Signal: Weekly selection exit
Removed from Free’s weekly long list; close the held position
2026-10-09Signal 2026-10-08$331.69 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L 4.69%; hold 42 days5.13%Reference exposure; close held quantity
PTEN
Signal: Weekly selection exit
Removed from Free’s weekly long list; close the held position
2026-10-02Signal 2026-10-01$11.04 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L -7.46%; hold 14 days4.67%Reference exposure; close held quantity
BWA
Signal: Weekly selection exit
Removed from Free’s weekly long list; close the held position
2026-10-02Signal 2026-10-01$61.00 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L -8.69%; hold 21 days4.60%Reference exposure; close held quantity
ZION
Signal: Weekly selection exit
Removed from Free’s weekly long list; close the held position
2026-09-25Signal 2026-09-24$63.48 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L -7.67%; hold 56 days4.55%Reference exposure; close held quantity
VALE
Signal: Weekly selection exit
Removed from Free’s weekly long list; close the held position
2026-09-25Signal 2026-09-24$13.56 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L -11.26%; hold 28 days4.52%Reference exposure; close held quantity
STX
Signal: Weekly selection exit
Removed from Free’s weekly long list; close the held position
2026-09-18Signal 2026-09-17$814.69 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L -6.30%; hold 7 days4.67%Reference exposure; close held quantity
NOV
Signal: Weekly selection exit
Removed from Free’s weekly long list; close the held position
2026-09-18Signal 2026-09-17$20.41 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L 6.23%; hold 49 days5.11%Reference exposure; close held quantity
ATI
Signal: Weekly selection exit
Removed from Free’s weekly long list; close the held position
2026-09-18Signal 2026-09-17$184.71 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L -8.58%; hold 7 days4.56%Reference exposure; close held quantity
MPC
Signal: Weekly selection exit
Removed from Free’s weekly long list; close the held position
2026-09-11Signal 2026-09-10$394.99 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L 10.95%; hold 28 days5.54%Reference exposure; close held quantity
MAR
Signal: Weekly selection exit
Removed from Free’s weekly long list; close the held position
2026-09-11Signal 2026-09-10$334.96 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L -4.49%; hold 28 days4.77%Reference exposure; close held quantity
KMX
Signal: Weekly selection exit
Removed from Free’s weekly long list; close the held position
2026-09-11Signal 2026-09-10$61.42 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L 5.21%; hold 42 days5.07%Reference exposure; close held quantity
New long buys · 15

Buy to open a new long position

Ticker / WhyModel trade dateReference priceModel weight
XOM
Signal: Weekly selection entry
Added to Free’s weekly long list; open a long position
2026-10-09Signal 2026-10-08$167.87 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L —; hold 0 days5.00%Entry sizing reference
SU
Signal: Weekly selection entry
Added to Free’s weekly long list; open a long position
2026-10-09Signal 2026-10-08$70.71 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L —; hold 0 days5.00%Entry sizing reference
COP
Signal: Weekly selection entry
Added to Free’s weekly long list; open a long position
2026-10-09Signal 2026-10-08$133.85 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L —; hold 0 days5.00%Entry sizing reference
APA
Signal: Weekly selection entry
Added to Free’s weekly long list; open a long position
2026-10-09Signal 2026-10-08$45.47 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L —; hold 0 days5.00%Entry sizing reference
AES
Signal: Weekly selection entry
Added to Free’s weekly long list; open a long position
2026-10-09Signal 2026-10-08$14.93 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L —; hold 0 days5.00%Entry sizing reference
PBF
Signal: Weekly selection entry
Added to Free’s weekly long list; open a long position
2026-10-02Signal 2026-10-01$81.34 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L —; hold 0 days5.00%Entry sizing reference
CVX
Signal: Weekly selection entry
Added to Free’s weekly long list; open a long position
2026-10-02Signal 2026-10-01$204.80 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L —; hold 0 days5.00%Entry sizing reference
LXP
Signal: Weekly selection entry
Added to Free’s weekly long list; open a long position
2026-09-25Signal 2026-09-24$60.92 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L —; hold 0 days5.00%Entry sizing reference
ATI
Signal: Weekly selection entry
Added to Free’s weekly long list; open a long position
2026-09-25Signal 2026-09-24$186.67 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L —; hold 0 days5.00%Entry sizing reference
PTEN
Signal: Weekly selection entry
Added to Free’s weekly long list; open a long position
2026-09-18Signal 2026-09-17$11.93 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L —; hold 0 days5.00%Entry sizing reference
MPC
Signal: Weekly selection entry
Added to Free’s weekly long list; open a long position
2026-09-18Signal 2026-09-17$420.27 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L —; hold 0 days5.00%Entry sizing reference
MAR
Signal: Weekly selection entry
Added to Free’s weekly long list; open a long position
2026-09-18Signal 2026-09-17$334.51 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L —; hold 0 days5.00%Entry sizing reference
STX
Signal: Weekly selection entry
Added to Free’s weekly long list; open a long position
2026-09-11Signal 2026-09-10$869.42 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L —; hold 0 days5.00%Entry sizing reference
BWA
Signal: Weekly selection entry
Added to Free’s weekly long list; open a long position
2026-09-11Signal 2026-09-10$66.81 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L —; hold 0 days5.00%Entry sizing reference
ATI
Signal: Weekly selection entry
Added to Free’s weekly long list; open a long position
Related MI signal: Pullback resolved upwardMI signal 2026-09-10
2026-09-11Signal 2026-09-10$202.04 ref.Model reference, not a fillPrice P/L —; hold 0 days5.00%Entry sizing reference

System Pulse

WindowClosed / WinAvg P/L / HoldOpen / P/L / Hold
30 days12 closedWin 41.67%-3.40%32 days9 open · 5.41%11 days
100 days58 closedWin 55.17%2.71%24 days14 open · 11.04%26 days
200 days110 closedWin 47.27%5.43%28 days15 open · 8.21%32 days

Hypothetical model actions and open episodes. The frozen research history runs through December 31, 2025 and the same model rules continue afterward. Brokerage-account seed orders are excluded.

Performance reference

Historical figures below describe the previous research allocation model, not a backtest of the entry/exit-only execution rule effective October 7, 2026.

MI Strategy Review

Free is a freshly rebuilt, deduplicated hypothetical share/cash model. Historical model results are not broker fills or customer returns. The first next-open fills and costs are included from the December 30, 2011 cash baseline.

Same-period hypothetical Free research. Returns are cumulative, not annualized; maximum drawdowns use identical daily market dates for the model and benchmarks.

PeriodFreeSPYQQQ
1Y40.55%DD -15.29%17.72%DD -18.76%20.77%DD -22.77%
3Y127.10%DD -15.29%85.50%DD -18.76%134.86%DD -22.77%
5Y193.91%DD -15.29%95.39%DD -24.50%101.77%DD -35.12%
Measurement dates
PeriodOpeningEndingSessions
1Y2024-12-312025-12-31250
3Y2022-12-302025-12-31752
5Y2020-12-312025-12-311255
Full Free research period
PeriodFreeSPYQQQ
2012–20251308.47%DD -16.06%595.69%DD -33.72%1142.82%DD -35.12%

Calendar-time CAGR 20.79% · maximum drawdown -16.06% · 655 active weekly reviews of 708 total.

Hypothetical model continuation since 2026-01-02: 27.34% return, -16.55% maximum drawdown across 198 completed session(s).

The hypothetical research simulation includes 5 bps slippage plus 1 bp commission per fill. Subscription fees, taxes, cash interest and additional market impact are excluded.

Model results are not customer or brokerage returns. Subscription fees and taxes are excluded. SPY and QQQ are unlevered adjusted-price buy-and-hold comparisons. Research selection, hindsight, current-survivor/founder-universe and no-untouched-holdout limitations apply.

Model Notes

Free selects up to 15 long positions from the weekly ranking process. It keeps its own Thursday portfolio state. Own Thursday-close portfolio from positive combined MI-core and O1-X long intentions; not a separate single-vintage selector.

Research and hypothetical model results are educational. Market risk, execution differences and modeled costs affect outcomes; past results do not predict future performance.

Delivery Reference

Mount Inflection · FREE
MI 2.1 · Hypothetical model research · 2026-10-15
mountinflection.com

Educational research, not personalized investment advice. Trading can lose money. Model results are hypothetical, not customer or brokerage returns. Past results do not predict future performance. Publisher may hold positions.

Automation data · JSON

For your AI assistant or script: the new entries and exits in this issue. These are model signals; your account settings control any trades.

MI_AUTOMATION_JSON_BEGIN
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  "schema": "mi.newsletter.delta.v1",
  "publisher": "Mount Inflection",
  "product_version": "MI 2.1",
  "tier": "free",
  "strategy_id": "MI_FREE_WEEKLY_RISK_STATE_V1",
  "issue_id": "mi21-free-2026-10-16",
  "issue_date": "2026-10-16",
  "completed_equity_session": "2026-10-15",
  "timezone": "America/New_York",
  "kind": "entry_exit_delta",
  "evidence": "hypothetical_model_signals_not_fills",
  "status": "new_actions",
  "rules": {
    "order": "exits_before_entries",
    "wait_for_exit_fills": true,
    "validity": "effective_session_only",
    "historical_backfill": false,
    "holdings_are_not_buy_instructions": true,
    "rebalance_existing_positions": false,
    "exit_scope": "strategy_and_position_entry_date",
    "deduplicate_by": "action_id",
    "changed_action_requires_review": true,
    "account_mode": "subscriber_selected_paper_or_live",
    "broker_orders_authorized_by_this_data": false
  },
  "actions": [
    {
      "action_id": "6d826e730f6c16e2c9c25ba40d0abc7465839dd28cd8b5c80e35e298466da7ce",
      "symbol": "HOG",
      "action": "SELL",
      "position_side": "long",
      "signal_date": "2026-10-15",
      "effective_session": "2026-10-16",
      "position_entry_date": "2026-07-31",
      "sizing": {
        "close": "entire_strategy_owned_episode",
        "if_not_owned": "skip"
      }
    },
    {
      "action_id": "46c18fb47db995210f47468cd3204ef71c4c019f407fc14217f22722ef00fe1f",
      "symbol": "SNOW",
      "action": "BUY",
      "position_side": "long",
      "signal_date": "2026-10-15",
      "effective_session": "2026-10-16",
      "position_entry_date": "2026-10-16",
      "sizing": {
        "model_equity_fraction": 0.05,
        "subscriber_mapping_required": true
      }
    }
  ]
}
MI_AUTOMATION_JSON_END